So what is in store for us this week in terms of key data in the financial markets? We have seen a trend emerge since Donald Trump took over the US presidency which is that he seems to make his most crucial announcements on his Twitter so be sure to keep your eyes peeled on his latest updates, especially with the tensions between the US and North Korea being at an all-time high. The “Risk” trade will dominate trading sessions as this situation plays out – sooner rather than later we all hope!
In terms of core data, please find below a daily overview of the week:
Early in the Australasian session we have The Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Kent Speaking so watch out for a steer on rate path and in particular any comment on the current strength of the AUD. Recently they alluded to the fact they could accommodate the AUD at these levels but as we sit around 0.8000 against the USD are they still as comfortable? Shortly afterwards we see the release of Japans quarterly GDP. A strong number could further fuel the risk rally that is pushing the JPY towards unwelcome levels for the BOJ. It is a very light data day for Europe and the US with only Eurozone month on month Industrial Production data where market expectation is for slightly weaker numbers both month on month and year on year releases.
After relatively quiet session on Monday, Tuesday promises to be a volatile day in the markets with a whole host of data. The day kicks off with Industrial Production out of Japan at 5.30 am. Then at 7am we have the release of German GDP data, the headline Q/Q number forecasted at 0.7% versus the previous 0.6% print. We then have Swiss import prices before the UK CPI/PPI/RPI data. The headline numbers to watch here are the M/M number which is forecast unchanged with the Y/Y number forecast slightly higher at 2.7% against 2.6%.
In the afternoon session at 1.30pm we have US Import and Manufacturing data as well as the Retail sales, where expectation is -0.2% to 0.4% in both core and Ex- Autos.
Again we start with Aussie data in the shape of wages and economic index very early in the session. Then in the European session we have Italian GDP, before the crucial UK Unemployment data, ILO Unemployment and Average Earnings data at 9.30. These will have a strong bearing on UK rate path, thus causing high volatility if there is divergence from expectation. At 10am we have EU GDP data is expected unchanged at 2.1%. In the US session we have Building Permits which are expected lower at 1.24m vs 1.25m last month and Housing Starts expected at 1.23m vs 1.22m. Latterly we then have the weekly Oil Inventory Data at 3.30.
We start the day with top tier Employment/Unemployment data out of Australia. At 9.30 we receive the UK Retail sales data. Expectation is for lower numbers both inclusive and excluding gasoline data, Excluding is forecast 0% vs 0.9% and Including 0.1% vs 0.6% in the m/m numbers. We then have Eurozone CPI and Trade Balance at 10am. In the states we have the Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed and Continuous Claims at 1.30. At 2.15 we get the US Continuous Claims, Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production numbers.
Quiet session in Asia and the UK with just German PPI data at 7am and Eurozone Current Account Data. In the afternoon the main news is out of Canada, with Retail sales and core inflation numbers at 1.30pm. In the US we get the Consumer sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan at 3pm then latterly at 3.15 we have Fed Reserve member Kaplan due to speak, so watch out for an update on FOMC rate expectation.
Written by CEO, Duncan Donald.
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